Jack Layton… and the orange wave

Jack Layton - Orange Wave

Kristy Kirkup, Parliamentary Bureau
First posted: Thursday, April 21, 2011 7:42:53 MDT AM

Layton’s ‘Orange Wave’ leading in Quebec: polls

OTTAWA –
The NDP is now the frontrunner in Quebec, according to two new polls released Thursday which put the party ahead of the Bloc Quebecois in the province for the first time.

A CROP poll conducted for La Presse over the past week says 36% of Quebecers would vote for the NDP, which is 5% higher than the BQ’s support.

Similarly, an EKOS poll conducted for iPolitics found the New Democrats leaped to 31% in Quebec while the Bloc has fallen back to about 24%.

NDP Leader Jack Layton had his first interview on the new numbers with the Sun News Network.

“We still have work to do,” Layton, a Quebec native, told QMI Agency sister network. “I think the message is getting through in Quebec, as you noticed, and elsewhere.”

The NDP won its first seat in the province in the 2008 election. Thomas Mulcair won Montreal’s Outremont riding. The party is hoping to bank in on this breakthrough and convert support into seats.

BQ leader Gilles Duceppe appeared defensive but dismissive at a press conference Thursday morning, as reporters grilled him on the unprecedented support for the NDP in the province.

“They’ve worked against the interests of Quebec in the past,” said Duceppe. “It’s not the first campaign we’ve had to fight to the very end.”

Kristy.Kirkup@sunmedia.ca
On Twitter: @kkirkup

Nanos Research

 

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win

from John Prince
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4 Responses to Jack Layton… and the orange wave

  1. Luke Nicholson says:

    NDP strength in Quebec is going to embolden Dippers across the country. Vote splitting on the left is now a serious issue for the LPC. The other issue for the Liberals is that the NDP, through taking seats from the BQ, could actually end up as the official opposition. The LPC and BQ could end up the 3rd and 4th place parties when everything shakes out. Wouldn’t that be something?

    Does vote splitting become bad enough between the LPC and NDP to allow the the CPC to come up the middle in Ontario and win a majority? I sure hope so.

    If the NDP comes out of this election with roughly the same, or more seats than the Liberals, how soon does a merger happen?

    This election, regardless of its outcome is going to be historic.

  2. Anonymous says:

    John, you forgot to mention that the Conservatives are now in majority territory (43% popular vote, 201 projected seat count). How could you be so negligent?

  3. John Prince says:

    Luke, I agree this election is shaping up to be historic, alright. Got all of us on our toes now, doesn’t it?

    Anon @10:31
    Sorry but I do not believe in polls, especially the ones that before this election until the present time show the conservatives not budging by more than 1 or 2 percentage points, despite scandal after scandal appearing daily in the media? Doesn’t make any sense to me and therefore I do not believe in polls, especially as they relate to the standings of the conservatives. Something ‘fishy’ going on here, me thinks?

    Besides that there are also other factors to consider such as the high percentage of people pollsters do not reach, because they only contact those with hardline telephones and disregard those who have cellphones only. Plus fudge factors with respect to how they do their calculations.

    At the end of the election I think we will see that both the polls and political pundits got it wrong, and as such did not see (or ignored) the Tsunami that is sweeping our great land.

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